Future scenarios and trends of energy demand in Colombia using long-range energy alternative planning

Andres F. Paez, Yecid Muñoz Maldonado, Adalberto Ospino Castro, Nelson Hernandez, Emanuel Conde, Leonardo Pacheco, William Gonzalez, Oscar Sotelo

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

18 Scopus citations

Abstract

The prospective of Colombia’s energy demand will be defined by economic, social, cultural and political phenomena. Modeling the factors that determine demand can be broadly divided into quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative phenomena, demography, energy efficiency and the direct consumption of fuels; qualitative effects are specific conditions, which are defined within each scenario as variables that will have effects on quantitative phenomena. In the baseline scenario, the transportation sector is expected to remain as the largest representative of Colombia’s energy demand, although its participation in the year 2050 will be reduced by approximately 7%. The residential sector will have a reduced growth supported by the law 1715 that will increase distributed generation and implement more efficient lighting systems. A scenario focused on energy diversification shows a reduction in demand since the short term. Transport sector is maintained with similar behaviors in all scenarios as the goods transport networks keep the same.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)178-190
Number of pages13
JournalInternational Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
Volume7
Issue number5
StatePublished - 1 Jan 2017

Keywords

  • Economic and energy
  • Energy demand
  • Energy prospective

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